While President Barack Obama has only average approval ratings and the economy continues to struggle (usually a bad sign for an incumbent President) the odds of his reelection in 2012 seem quite high right now because of the incompetency of the leading Republican candidates for the GOP nomination.
What follows is a quick rundown of each of the most likely candidates and why they are most likely doomed to defeat (either in the Republican primary for not being “conservative” enough or in the general election for being far too right wing.)
Sarah Palin – President Obama’s dream opponent has to be Sarah Palin. While she is quite popular with a certain segment of the GOP base, her overall favorability with the general voting public is extremely low. What’s great about a Palin candidacy for Obama is not only that she turns off centrist voters, but that she will also fire up his liberal supporters who may be somewhat disappointed by some elements of his first term.
Even if a liberal Obama supporter is somewhat disturbed by Obama’s moderate Presidency and his tendency to doing everything he can to work with Republicans even when they continue to stab him in the back every single time, he or she is certainly still going to get out there and make sure that the nightmare of a President Palin never becomes reality.
Mitt Romney – Romney probably has the best chance of defeating Obama in a general election. But the good news for the President is that he also looks to have a very tough time of winning the GOP primary as many Republicans see him as a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only.) And certainly his support for “RomneyCare” as Governor of Massachusetts will be a huge problem for him with “RomneyCare” being essentially the exact same thing as the hated (by the Republican base) “ObamaCare.”
Newt Gingrich – It’s hard to believe that anyone seriously thinks Newt Gingrich could become President. He is an extremely unlikable person and his recent flip-flop on Libya entirely to be on the other side of the issue from President Obama is indicative of someone who is clearly not serious enough for the White House.
Mike Huckabee – While Huckabee seems likable enough at first, when one digs into his record on social issues it becomes clear that he is far outside of the mainstream of America. Most disturbing to me is that he has no understanding of the importance of the separation of Church & State and was recently caught on camera praying for “spiritual warriors” to save people like himself (millionaire white men?) from being “enslaved.” And in a move that recalls the idiocy of Dan Quayle’s attack on “Murphy Brown,” Huckabee attacked the recent Oscar winner Natalie Portman for having a child out of wedlock.
Donald Trump – I don’t think Trump will ever actually run for President, it’s just a publicity stunt. Remember he has done this before; Trump pretended to run for President in 1988 and again in 2000. Also Trump has yet to provide an official birth certificate. He seems to only have a souvenir from a hospital in Jamaica, not an official document.
Haley Barbour – This Governor of Mississippi recently came out against slavery. Welcome to 1860 Haley.
Tim Pawlenty – Interminably boring. The mainstream media continues to prop Pawlenty up as if he’s a serious candidate but no one seems excited about his candidacy, not even Tim Pawlenty.
Ron or Rand Paul – It looks likely that either Ron or his son Rand will run for President. What seems very unlikely is that either of them will surpass the 10% mark in the primaries.
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